Methodology

How the numbers on this site are worked out, where they come from, and what they don't account for.

Where the numbers come from

• Entur — public transport departures and journey times, from their open API (no key required).
• MET Norway (the Norwegian Meteorological Institute) — cloud cover and daylight hours.
• NOAA SWPC — the planetary Kp index (solar activity), from the Space Weather Prediction Center.
• Vy, Fjord Tours and other operators — ticket and package prices, checked by hand.
• Statens vegvesen — mountain-pass and road status, once that's added to the site.

How the aurora score works

The "chance tonight" score combines three things:

• Solar activity (45%) — the highest forecast Kp index for the next few hours, scaled so Kp 1 scores 0 and Kp 6 or above scores the maximum.
• Sky (45%) — tonight's cloud cover from MET Norway; a clear sky scores the maximum, complete cloud scores zero.
• Darkness (10%) — how many hours of real darkness there are tonight, capping out once there are 8 hours or more.

Those three combine into a 0–100 score: below 25 is "unlikely", 25–44 is "low chance", 45–69 is "fair chance", and 70 or above is "strong chance". During the midnight sun — when there's less than two hours of darkness — the score is always 0, because there's no dark sky to see anything against.

What it doesn't account for: moonlight (a full moon can wash out a faint aurora even on a clear night), local fog or microclimate that a regional forecast misses, and exactly where the aurora oval sits on a given night — the score tells you whether conditions are good, not whether the lights will be directly overhead.

How prices are estimated

Prices shown are typical advance fares in low season, per person, unless stated otherwise; hotel prices are a mid-range room for two, per night. They exclude flights to Norway, food and activities, and they're not live quotes — always confirm on the operator's site before booking. We check them at least every quarter, and the date checked is shown on each page.

Affiliate disclosure

Plan Norway links to GetYourGuide and Viator for tours, Booking.com (via Stay22) for hotels, and Fjord Tours and Hurtigruten (via AWIN) for fjord trips and coastal ferries. If you book through one of these links, we earn a small commission — the price you pay doesn't change. Commissions don't influence which operator gets recommended or how options are ranked: a cheaper or better-reviewed alternative is shown even when we earn nothing from it.

Corrections

Found a wrong price or a closed road? Email [EMAIL].